As questions mount over the legal standing of the Nigerian Democratic Congress (NDC), a new political platform linked to Peter Obi, former senator Shehu Sani has moved to separate the controversy from President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and the ruling All Progressives Congress, arguing that the opposition’s troubles may be rooted more in internal contradictions than external sabotage.
His remarks come at a politically sensitive moment, as conversations around opposition realignment ahead of the 2027 general election are gathering pace. With reports of a possible alliance involving Obi and Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, the emergence of the NDC had been viewed by some analysts as a potential vehicle for a broader anti-APC coalition. But fresh claims challenging the party’s registration have introduced uncertainty into that calculation.
Registration controversy clouds opposition calculations
The latest dispute was triggered by comments from Dr. Umar Ardo, a leading figure in the African Democratic Congress from Adamawa State, who alleged in an interview with DCL that the NDC’s registration did not follow the conventional process required by the Independent National Electoral Commission.
According to Ardo, the party secured legal recognition through a court order rather than standard administrative approval, raising questions over whether constitutional requirements for party registration were fully met.
That claim has not been independently confirmed by electoral authorities, and INEC has yet to issue a formal clarification on the specific legal status of the NDC. Until that happens, much of the debate remains in the realm of political accusation rather than settled fact.
Still, in Nigerian politics, perception often moves faster than official process. Questions over legitimacy — whether eventually proven or not — can shape elite negotiations, donor confidence, and grassroots mobilisation long before courts or regulators intervene.
Shehu Sani’s warning: Look inward, not outward
Responding on his verified X account, Sani dismissed suggestions that Tinubu or the presidency should be blamed for the turbulence around the new party.
Using a pointed marriage analogy, he described Obi and Kwankwaso as political figures who had effectively “divorced” previous alliances to begin a new union under a different platform. In his framing, the resistance now confronting that union is less likely to be orchestrated by Aso Rock than by political actors wounded by shifting loyalties.
His broader point was unmistakable: opposition supporters should not automatically interpret every setback as a government plot.
That intervention matters because conspiracy narratives have increasingly become part of Nigeria’s political culture, especially when opposition movements face legal or organisational hurdles. Sani’s remarks challenge that reflex, suggesting that weak structures, unresolved rivalries, and procedural gaps inside opposition coalitions may be just as decisive as pressure from incumbents.
Why this matters nationally
For ordinary Nigerians frustrated by economic strain and seeking credible electoral alternatives, the stability of opposition platforms is not merely an elite political story. It directly shapes the quality of democratic competition.
A fragmented opposition often benefits the ruling party, not necessarily because of state interference, but because divided challengers struggle to build durable coalitions, resolve leadership tensions, or present coherent policy alternatives.
Nigeria’s political history offers precedent. From coalition collapses in the Second Republic to more recent merger tensions that produced both breakthroughs and breakdowns, opposition alliances have often stumbled over internal contradictions before voters even cast ballots.
What happens next
Attention will now shift to two fronts: whether INEC addresses questions surrounding the NDC’s registration, and whether Obi, Kwankwaso, and their allies can build a credible structure strong enough to survive legal and political scrutiny.
If the registration controversy deepens, the party’s viability as a 2027 platform could come under serious threat. If it is resolved quickly, however, the episode may simply become an early test of whether Nigeria’s opposition can manage conflict without collapsing under its own weight.
For now, Sani’s message has inserted a blunt note into the debate: before blaming Tinubu, the opposition may need to examine the cracks within its own house.
