It’s essentially a two-horse race to the finish in the NFC South. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Atlanta Falcons are both locked at 6-6, and with five games left on the schedule there’s a very real chance we could once again see a 9-8 team make the playoffs from football’s funniest, most chaotic division. The Bucs exceeded all expectations this season, while the Falcons has watched as their pants fell down, before stepping on a million rakes like Sideshow Bob.
This goes so much deeper than just a tied division with five games left, because what takes the Buccaneers vs Falcons playoff race from the ordinary to the sublime is how bad the remaining schedule is for each team.
Buccaneers
- Raiders (2-10)
- Chargers (8-4)
- Cowboys (5-7)
- Panthers (3-9)
- Saints (4-8)
- Combined record: 22-38 (.366)
Falcons
- Vikings (10-2)
- Raiders (2-10)
- Giants (2-10)
- Commanders (8-5)
- Panthers (3-9)
- Combined record: 25-36 (.409)
The Buccaneers have the narrowest edge in opponent record, but dive a little deeper and this is where it gets extremely dicey to predict how the conference will end down the stretch. If we divide the remaining games into three categories: Likely win, Toss up, and Likely loss we have a pretty wild scenario brewing.
Buccaneers
Likely win: Raiders
Toss up: Cowboys, Panthers, Saints
Likely loss: Chargers
Falcons
Likely win: Raiders, Giants
Toss up: Panthers
Likely loss: Vikings, Commanders
The Panthers have become a toss up game for both teams since Bryce Young has found his form in the second half of the season, while the Falcons benefit from having two games against truly hopeless teams in Las Vegas and New York.
Meanwhile the Buccaneers are a stronger team, but have more 50/50 games on their remaining schedule. The Cowboys are showing more fight than anyone thought with Cooper Rush under center, and the Saints are so unpredictable this season they could either come out and have a banner day, or do nothing.
This means the entire finish to the NFC South could legitimately come down to who plays better in the common game against THE CAROLINA PANTHERS, who currently have the No. 5 pick in the NFL Draft because their record is so bad. To make things even better the Falcons close out their season against the Panthers on January 5.
There is a very real chance we see the Bucs beat the Raiders and Cowboys, lose to the Chargers and Panthers, then beat the Saints to close out the season. This would make their record 9-8 to finish the year. Meanwhile the Falcons beat the Raiders and Giants, lose to the Vikings and Commanders — giving them an 8-8 record. If they can beat the Panthers then they finish 9-8 as well, where they own the tiebreaker over the Bucs and would enter the playoffs, because they own the head-to-head sweep with Tampa Bay.
Nothing is more NFC South that needing a desperate win against one of the worst teams in the NFL in order to win the entire division. It’s why this division is so damn funny, and the NFL’s most beautiful mess.
