The Kansas City Chiefs can become the first team in the NFL to clinch a 2024 playoff spot while the Buffalo Bills can be the first team to clinch their division this weekend. Both of them will need a win and some help, but these scenarios are not far-fetched.
How the Kansas City Chiefs can clinch a playoff spot in Week 13
The Kansas City Chiefs are 10-1 and in first place in the AFC standings. If they were to somehow falter and be passed by the Los Angeles Chargers or Denver Broncos in the AFC West, they’d end up in the Wild Card mix.
With 10 wins, the worst record KC could end up with is 10-7. The eighth-place Miami Dolphins have six losses, so they can finish 11-6 at best. The Chiefs need to get to 11 wins and have the Dolphins at seven losses in order to clinch a better overall record, so here are the outcomes Kansas City needs to clinch a playoff spot:
- Chiefs win AND Dolphins loss/tie
Since the Dolphins play on Thanksgiving night and the Chiefs play on Black Friday, Kansas City could have their playoff spot sewn up by the end of November!
Kansas City has another path, as well. If they win on Sunday to get to 11 wins and the Denver Broncos lose to get to 6 losses, they could finish with the same 11-6 record and Kansas City would win the common games record tiebreaker.
- Chiefs win and Broncos loss
- Chiefs win and Chargers loss and Broncos tie
How the Buffalo Bills can clinch the AFC East in Week 13
The Bills aren’t going to settle for just a playoff spot. They can clinch the AFC East in Week 13. Buffalo has nine wins to the Miami Dolphins’ five, but the Bills have the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Dolphins thanks to two wins. If both teams finish 9-7, Buffalo wins the tiebreaker.
That means there are two outcomes that need to happen for the Bills to clinch the AFC East this weekend:
- Dolphins loss AND Bills win
If Miami loses, the best they can finish is 10-7. The Bills win any tiebreaker at 10-7, so Buffalo getting to 10 wins by winning on Sunday gets them over the finish line to a home playoff game and their fifth straight AFC East title.
The Detroit Lions playoff clinching scenarios in Week 13 are more extensive
With the Detroit Lions at 10-1, you might expect easy clinching scenarios like in the AFC, but that’s not the case. The second-place Minnesota Vikings are only one game behind the Lions in the NFC North, so they can’t win the division for a while.
In the Wild Card race, the Cardinals are 6-5 and three teams sit at 5-6. A disaster for the Lions could see them fall to 10-7, so they need multiple games to go their way to clear hurdles.
All of these scenarios involve a Lions win and a 49ers loss or tie. (Detroit has beaten San Francisco, so they’d win head-to-head tiebreakers with them.) They also involve a negative result for the Cardinals and some other help to create multi-team scenarios.
Lions win + 49ers tie or loss PLUS:
- Cardinals loss/tie + Seahawks loss + Buccaneers loss or tie
- Cardinals loss + Seahawks tie + Buccaneers loss or tie
- Cardinals loss/tie + Seahawks loss + Commanders loss or tie + Falcons loss
- Cardinals loss/tie + Seahawks loss + Commanders loss + Falcons tie
- Cardinals loss + Seahawks tie + Commanders loss or tie + Falcons loss
- Cardinals loss + Seahawks tie + Commanders loss + Falcons tie
I know it’s complicated, but with multiple games between the potential Wild Card teams, there are multiple paths to the clinch.
NFL Playoff Picture and story lines heading into Week 13
All of the storylines you need heading out of Week 12 and into Week 13 are certainly plentiful.
The New England Patriots, Las Vegas Raiders, and New York Giants have been eliminated from their divisional races. No team has been mathematically eliminated from the playoffs yet.
Here are the standings:
AFC standings after Week 12
1. Kansas City Chiefs (10-1)
2. Buffalo Bills (9-2)
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-3)
4. Houston Texans (7-5)
5. Baltimore Ravens (8-4)
6. Los Angeles Chargers (7-4)
7. Denver Broncos (7-5)
8. Miami Dolphins (5-6)
9. Indianapolis Colts (5-7)
10. Cincinnati Bengals (4-7)
11. Cleveland Browns (3-8, 3-3 AFC)
12. New York Jets (3-8, 3-5 AFC, win over TEN)
13. Tennessee Titans (3-8, 3-4 AFC, loss to NYJ)
14. New England Patriots (3-9)*
15. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-9, 2-4 AFC)
16. Las Vegas Raiders (2-9, 2-7 AFC)*
NFC standings heading into Week 13
1. Detroit Lions (10-1)
2. Philadelphia Eagles (9-2)
3. Seattle Seahawks (6-5, win over ARI, win over ATL)
4. Atlanta Falcons (6-5. loss to SEA)
5. Minnesota Vikings (9-2)
6. Green Bay Packers (8-3)
7. Washington Commanders (7-5)
8. Arizona Cardinals (6-5, loss to SEA)
9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-6, 5-3 NFC)
10. Los Angeles Rams (5-6, win over SF, 3-5 NFC)
11. San Francisco 49ers (5-6, loss to LAR)
12. New Orleans Saints (4-7, 3-4 NFC)
13. Chicago Bears (4-7, 2-4 NFC)
14. Dallas Cowboys (4-7, 2-5 NFC)
15. Carolina Panthers (3-8)
16. New York Giants (2-9)*
