The Detroit Lions are a case study in how to turn a franchise around. Not just in the NFL, but all of sports. Three years removed from a 3-13-1 finish, the team is now cruising at 5-1 on the year, just defeated one of the league’s last remaining undefeated teams and appears to be on a crash course with the Chiefs, football’s final boss.
Every time a question has arisen with this organization, they’ve come back to answer it. Every lingering doubt about this franchise has been erased. Every time we’ve crept towards counting them out, they’ve found a way to put them back in the discussion. There’s no doubt the Chiefs are dominant, and at 6-0 they’re still rolling — but it’s impossible to look at what Detroit has built and see them as anything less than the most dominant team in football.
Let’s dive into the numbers first, and then we can walk this discussion back and talk about how the Lions simply feel more dominant right now.
Strength of schedule
A lot of the talk about the Lions needs to begin with their SoS. Not only are they 5-1 right now, but they’ve done it against a pretty darn good slate of teams. As it stands Detroit have played opponents with a combined record of 17-14 (.548), with three of their five wins coming against teams with winning records.
Meanwhile the Chiefs have also won three of their games against teams with a winning record, but an overall SoS against of 19-19 (.500).
This is all within a margin of error. The difference between .548 and .500 could shift based on Monday Night Football, but the fact is that despite the Lions’ sole four-point loss to a very good Buccaneers team they’ve been more dominant on both sides of the ball.
Offensive and defensive rankings
If we accept that the Lions and Chiefs have had more-or-less the same road to their current records, it’s here where Detroit pulls ahead to an extent where the difference between being 5-1 and 6-0 melts away.
Lions vs. Chiefs
| Stat | Lions | Chiefs |
|---|---|---|
| Stat | Lions | Chiefs |
| Points For | 182 (30.33/g) | 146 (24.33/g) |
| Points Against | 120 (20.0/g) | 103 (17.16/g) |
| Net scoring differential | 62 (10.33/g) | 43 (7.16/g) |
| Turnover differential | 7 | -3 |
| Red Zone TD% | 56.5 | 38.9 |
| Opp Red Zone TD% | 46.7 | 46.7 |
| Red Zone Differential | 9.8 | -7.8 |
| Team yards-per-attempt | 8.8 | 7.15 |
| Opp yards-per-attempt | 6.5 | 6.51 |
| YPA differential | 2.3 | 0.64 |
| Team yards-per-carry | 5.01 | 4.08 |
| Opp yards-per-carry | 4.58 | 3.83 |
| YPC differential | 0.43 | 0.25 |
There is not a single statistical area in which the Chiefs have been the better team. In fact, it’s a ludicrous compliment to Steve Spagnuolo that while Patrick Mahomes has thrown eight interceptions (and is on pace for a career-high 23), the defense is managing to hold opponents to the same Red Zone scoring percentage as the Lions, who have been winning the turnover battle. This is cold comfort though, because the vibes are the Chiefs really aren’t great unless you’re blissful to put your head in the sand and think 6-0 cures all.
This is where we get to the anecdotal side of the argument, the feelings of it all.
The Lions are on fire, and the Chiefs just … aren’t
If we look at the best possible iterations of these teams it’s very difficult to be bullish about the Chiefs right now as they hit the back end of their schedules — while it’s really tough to find anything to fault the Lions over.
We’ve seen very distinct iterations of Kansas City across their two Super Bowl wins. In 2022 they overwhelmed teams with their offense, winning a shootout with the Eagles. Then in 2023 they reinvented to become a defensive-first team that didn’t require Mahomes to play hero ball.
The big issue the current Chiefs have is twofold: Firstly, Mahomes is struggling a lot more than he has in the past. However, the team’s defense has totally flipped its area of expertise. In 2023 Kansas City had a Top 5 passing defense, and a run defense that ranked in the 20s. This year they have a Top 5 rushing defense, with a pass defense that ranks in the 20s.
The result in this is that KC is giving up a lot more explosive plays than the past, and Mahomes is forcing passes to try and balance out these big plays. That’s not a great combo for a team that wants to control the tempo of a game.
Meanwhile, Jared Goff is playing like a man possessed, and it’s here where we discuss the game on Sunday against Minnesota. The one constant to the Vikings astonishing run this season has been how utterly befuddled quarterbacks have been in playing against Brian Flores’ creative blitz packages. However, Goff and offensive coordinator Ben Johnson broke the code wide open and played damn-near flawless football. The pass rush still got to Goff, but it was how well he handled the pressure that was entirely different. At no point was the moment too big for him, and it showed on every down.
When you couple that with how well the Lions pass rush played despite being without Aiden Hutchinson, we have a team riding a high, with a hot hand, and handling adversity extremely well.
Right now Detroit isn’t just America’s Team, they’re the best in the NFL — and I’m not sure it’s even that close.
Winner: The Seahawks for hiring Mike McDonald
I think it’s really flown under the radar how sneakily good Seattle has been considering the lack of top-end talent this team has. The Hawks are now 4-3 on the year and manhandled the Falcons in their 34-14 win.
It wasn’t just Seattle’s best win of the season, but a statement that this team hit their offseason out of the park.
There’s no doubt this whole process is going to take time. Geno Smith isn’t the long-term future at quarterback, it’s unclear if Jaxon Smith-Njigba can carry Tyler Lockett’s torch as he starts to slow down, and defensively we’re still waiting to see how many of the organization’s young players can blossom — but Mike McDonald is the man for the job.
This was one of the best hiring prior to Week 1, and it’s certainly held up that way. McDonald is getting every ounce of performance out of his players that he can, and that’s resulting in Seattle swinging above their weight class each week. The future is bright.
Loser: Dave Canales
Meanwhile in Carolina it’s impossible to find a team with a bleaker future than the Panthers. Whatever one week magic that Andy Dalton had has utterly evaporated, and Canales’ weekly high-energy pep talks are past the point of being tiresome.
The Panthers got blown out by the Commanders on Sunday, their fourth loss by 25 points or more. There’s no energy on defense, no playmakers on offense (other than Chuba Hubbard) and the team has become a putrid cesspit.
Carolina is on pace to allow 590 point this season, which would be the most in franchise history by over 100 points.
Offensively they’re on pace to score 267 points, tied for 7th-worst all time.
Surely there’s some way to shake this up. I don’t know, a former No. 1 QB who’s just sitting there doing nothing and needs to be evaluated more before the entire roster is blown up and sold for parts?
Andy Dalton is still starting next week, per Canales.
What a joke.
Winner: Kliff Kingsbury
We round out this coaching-heavy week of picks with the Commanders OC, who is absolutely playing his way back into a head coaching job that a fanbase is going to hate.
Kingsbury’s explosive Washington offense proved that it can run like a well-tuned machine even when Marcus Mariota had to take over for Jayden Daniels when he was pulled due to injury.
The big difference between Washington’s version of the Kingsbury spread and what he had in Arizona is that the run game is really clicking as well as the pass. To be honest, we know how this would end long term: The Kingsbury offense won’t hold up to scrutiny past a full season, but that might be all he needs to land another major head coaching job.
